🗳️ Elections

Florida Governor margin of victory

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 5+ pts

Live

Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi

Volume-weighted avg

31%

69%

No (69%)Yes (31%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 31%. Kalshi has moved down 19pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Florida by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Florida Governor margin of victory

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 0.5+ pts

64%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 1+ pts

61%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 1.5+ pts

59%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 2+ pts

56%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 2.5+ pts

54%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 3+ pts

45%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 3.5+ pts

40%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 4+ pts

38%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 4.5+ pts

33%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 5.5+ pts

30%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Jolly, 1+ pts

28%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 6+ pts

26%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 7+ pts

20%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 8+ pts

18%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Jolly, 2+ pts

18%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Jolly, 4+ pts

13%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Jolly, 3+ pts

12%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 9+ pts

12%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 10+ pts

12%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Jolly, 5+ pts

10%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 12+ pts

Florida Governor margin of victory — Jolly, 6+ pts

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 15+ pts

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 18+ pts

Trade this marketLive prices

Avg probability

31%

probability of YES

Kalshi

31%Check

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Resolution

Nov 3, 2027

Market is open

Market stats

24h volume$4k

Liquidity$13k

CategoryElections

StatusOpen