🗳️ Elections

Florida Governor margin of victory

Florida Governor margin of victory — Jolly, 5+ pts

Live

Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi

Volume-weighted avg

10%

90%

No (90%)Yes (10%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 10%. Kalshi has moved up 5pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Florida by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Florida Governor margin of victory

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 0.5+ pts

64%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 1+ pts

61%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 1.5+ pts

58%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 2+ pts

58%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 2.5+ pts

50%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 3+ pts

48%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 3.5+ pts

43%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 4+ pts

38%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 4.5+ pts

32%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 5.5+ pts

30%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 5+ pts

30%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Jolly, 1+ pts

27%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 6+ pts

24%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 7+ pts

19%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Jolly, 2+ pts

18%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 8+ pts

16%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Jolly, 3+ pts

13%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 10+ pts

12%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 9+ pts

12%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Jolly, 4+ pts

10%

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 12+ pts

Florida Governor margin of victory — Jolly, 6+ pts

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 15+ pts

Florida Governor margin of victory — Donalds, 18+ pts

Trade this marketLive prices

Avg probability

10%

probability of YES

Kalshi

10%Check

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Resolution

Nov 3, 2027

Market is open

Market stats

24h volume$2k

Liquidity$3k

CategoryElections

StatusOpen