🗳️ Elections
Which bills will become law in 2026?
Which bills will become law in 2026? — AI-chip export licensing
Live
Resolves Jan 1, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
15%
No
85%
No (85%)Yes (15%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$52
Liquidity
$5k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 15%. Kalshi has moved down 3pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If legislation that subjects covered AI-chip exports to mandatory congressional review with a statutory blocking period has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Which bills will become law in 2026?
Will Export-control chip security become law this year?
36%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Export-control chip security
28%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions
22%
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21%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Data center utility cost protection
18%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — ADS-B revenue-use restriction
17%
Will Data center utility cost protection become law this year?
17%
Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year?
14%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Film/TV production expensing
13%
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13%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)
13%
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?
13%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Insulin cost cap
11%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Dignity Act
11%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Surface transportation reauthorization
11%
Will the NO FAKES Act become law this year?
11%
Will Credit-card routing competition become law this year?
10%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — JAWBONE Act
10%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — NO FAKES Act
10%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Electric vehicle Highway Trust Fund fee
10%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — E15 year-round sales
10%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Railway safety bill
10%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Fort Bragg → Fort Liberty
9%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Credit-card routing competition
9%
Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year?
8%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — White House ballroom funding
8%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Critical-minerals stockpile
8%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Jewish American security
7%
Will $2.50 Coin become law this year?
7%
Will Film/TV production expensing become law this year?
6%
Resolution
Jan 1, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$52
Liquidity$5k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen