🗳️ Elections
Which bills will become law in 2026?
Which bills will become law in 2026? — AI-chip export licensing
Live
Resolves Jan 1, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
20%
No
80%
No (80%)Yes (20%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$25
Liquidity
$5k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 20%. Kalshi has moved up 7pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If legislation that subjects covered AI-chip exports to mandatory congressional review with a statutory blocking period has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Which bills will become law in 2026?
Will Export-control chip security become law this year?
41%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Export-control chip security
38%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions
21%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Data center utility cost protection
20%
Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year?
18%
Will Data center utility cost protection become law this year?
18%
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17%
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11%
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?
9%
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8%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Insulin cost cap
8%
Will the DEFIANCE Act become law this year?
7%
Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year?
7%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Jewish American security
7%
Will Credit-card routing competition become law this year?
7%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — White House ballroom funding
6%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Surface transportation reauthorization
6%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Protect College Sports Act
6%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)
6%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Fort Bragg → Fort Liberty
6%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — JAWBONE Act
6%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — DEFIANCE Act
5%
Will the SHOWER Act become law this year?
5%
Will the SELF DRIVE Act become law this year?
4%
Will Film/TV production expensing become law this year?
4%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — $2.50 Coin
4%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Railway safety bill
4%
Will the NO FAKES Act become law this year?
4%
Resolution
Jan 1, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$25
Liquidity$5k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen