🗳️ Elections
Which bills will become law in 2026?

Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?

Live
Resolves Jan 1, 2027Polymarket
Volume-weighted avg
17%
No
83%
No (83%)Yes (17%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$760
Liquidity
$18k

Market intelligence

Polymarket currently prices this at 17%. Polymarket has moved up 3pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes Public Law 118-49. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

All outcomes · Which bills will become law in 2026?

Which bills will become law in 2026? — Export-control chip security
44%
Will Export-control chip security become law this year?
43%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions
26%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — AI-chip export licensing
22%
Will Data center utility cost protection become law this year?
22%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Protect College Sports Act
22%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Data center utility cost protection
21%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act
17%
Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year?
17%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)
16%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — ADS-B revenue-use restriction
16%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Railway safety bill
13%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Film/TV production expensing
13%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Dignity Act
11%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Surface transportation reauthorization
11%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — E15 year-round sales
11%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — $2.50 Coin
10%
Will the NO FAKES Act become law this year?
10%
Will Credit-card routing competition become law this year?
9%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Credit-card routing competition
9%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Fort Bragg → Fort Liberty
9%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Critical-minerals stockpile
9%
Will $2.50 Coin become law this year?
9%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Insulin cost cap
8%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Electric vehicle Highway Trust Fund fee
8%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Trump's Birthday as a federal holiday
8%
Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year?
7%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Trump Airport
7%
Will the DEFIANCE Act become law this year?
6%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — JAWBONE Act
6%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
17%
probability of YES
Polymarket
TGWA
Resolution
Jan 1, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$760
Liquidity$18k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen