🗳️ Elections
Which bills will become law in 2026?

Will $2.50 Coin become law this year?

Live
Resolves Jan 1, 2027Polymarket
Volume-weighted avg
4%
No
96%
No (96%)Yes (4%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
—
Liquidity
$3k

Market intelligence

Polymarket currently prices this at 4%. Polymarket has moved down 4pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that would require the Treasury to mint and issue $2.50 coins to mark America’s 250th anniversary is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes the H.R. 5616 (119th) — “$2.50 for America’s 250th Act”. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

All outcomes · Which bills will become law in 2026?

Will Export-control chip security become law this year?
42%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Export-control chip security
38%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions
26%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — ADS-B revenue-use restriction
16%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — E15 year-round sales
16%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — AI-chip export licensing
15%
Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year?
14%
Will Data center utility cost protection become law this year?
14%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Data center utility cost protection
14%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act
14%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Film/TV production expensing
13%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Dignity Act
11%
Will the NO FAKES Act become law this year?
11%
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?
10%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — NO FAKES Act
10%
Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year?
9%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Insulin cost cap
8%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)
8%
Will Credit-card routing competition become law this year?
7%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Jewish American security
7%
Will the DEFIANCE Act become law this year?
7%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Protect College Sports Act
6%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — JAWBONE Act
6%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Fort Bragg → Fort Liberty
6%
Will Film/TV production expensing become law this year?
5%
Will the SELF DRIVE Act become law this year?
5%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — DEFIANCE Act
5%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — Critical-minerals stockpile
5%
Will the SHOWER Act become law this year?
5%
Which bills will become law in 2026? — $2.50 Coin
4%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
4%
probability of YES
Polymarket
TGWA
Resolution
Jan 1, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume—
Liquidity$3k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen